China could face a dilemma dealing with Pyongyang this year as it finds North Korea's threats and deepening ties with Russia disruptive to Beijing's efforts to improve its relationship with Washington, analysts say.
North Korean state media KCNA said on Friday that the country tested an underwater nuclear weapons system in the waters off its east coast.
The test came after Pyongyang seemingly dismissed the possibility of peaceful reunification with Seoul by announcing on Monday the end of its reconciliation and reunification policy and called for preparing to occupy South Korea if war broke out.
At the same time, North Korea has been deepening its ties with Russia. Choe Son Hui, North Korea's foreign minister, returned to Pyongyang on Friday after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.
The Pyongyang-Moscow ties have been deepening since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Putin in Russia in September and accelerated their arms dealings.
Dennis Wilder, the U.S. National Security Council director for China from 2004 to 2005, told VOA by email that Beijing might feel "nervous about its loss of influence" over North Korea as it moves closer to Russia and "worry about what kind of assistance in the military sphere Putin has promised Kim."
He continued, "It is not in the Chinese interest" for Pyongyang to "take these provocative steps" as Beijing "currently calculates that it is in its interest to tactically improve ties with Washington."
"China expects the United States to keep the new president of Taiwan from touching China's red line on changing the status quo. Thus, at present, its strategy is not to raise military pressure but instead to place diplomatic pressure on Taiwan."
China claims sovereignty over the self-governing island of Taiwan. Lai Ching-te, the island's newly elected president, is a stalwart of the pro-independence and pro-democracy Democratic Progressive Party and has rejected China's claim over Taiwan.
Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu in Washington told VOA on Friday, "China firmly opposes the U.S. having any form of official interaction with Taiwan and interfering in Taiwan affairs in any way or under any pretext."
He continued that the U.S. should not seek to use the Taiwan question "as a tool to contain China" or "send any wrong signal to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces."
Regarding North Korea, he said, "China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement" on the Korean Peninsula and hopes all parties "address each other's legitimate concerns in a balanced way."
China's languishing economy could also encourage Beijing to become more cooperative with the U.S. on North Korea, said Joseph DeTrani, former special envoy for six-party talks with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
"The downturn, and China's need for more foreign direct investment, will moderate, to some degree, Xi Jinping's geopolitical assertiveness and influence China to be more cooperative on North Korea and, per U.S. requests, encourage North Korea to return to talks, initially, primarily with the U.S.," DeTrani told VOA via email.
On the other hand, Robert Rapson, charge d'affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, told VOA via email, "We would need to see more improvement overall in the U.S.-PRC relationship before Beijing would use its leverage with Pyongyang, at U.S. behest, to dial back its rhetorical and strategic 'provocations.'"
Patricia Kim, research fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, holds a joint appointment to the John L. Thornton China Center and the Center for East Asia Policy Studies. She told VOA via email that Beijing is unlikely to take any steps to rein in Pyongyang even though China "does not benefit from North Korea's saber rattling and rising tension on the Korean Peninsula."
She said that is because Beijing's priority is "to remain North Korea's most influential partner and to prevent others, including Moscow, from wrestling that position from itself."
In the long run, however, China could welcome Pyongyang's escalation of tensions if it needs to distract the U.S. in the South China Sea, said Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute at the University of London. Tsang and co-author Olivia Cheung recently published The Political Thought of Xi Jinping.
"North Korea making trouble for the U.S. is in China's interest as long as it does not get out of control and risk war that China does not want — at least not until China is ready," Tsang told VOA via email.
